CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2014-02-19T16:00:00-CME-001)

(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)
(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from  excerpted Forecast Discussion below)
(Submitted Kp estimate is from the excerpted Forecast Discussion and 3-Day Forecast below)
--
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2014 Feb 20 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels due to an M3/Sn flare from Region
1976 (S15W76, Cao/beta) at 20/0756 UTC. The flare was associated with
Type II (est. shock speed 844 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps, as well as
a 280 sfu 10 cm radio burst. This region had been in the decay stages
for the past few days, but garnered enough energy to produce the M-class
flare just before reaching the west limb. Region 1982 (S12E39,
Dki/beta-gamma) produced several low-level C-class flares and showed
gradual spot and penumbra development in its intermediate portion. It
maintained its beta-gamma magnetic configuration and remained the most
magnetically complex region on the disk. Minor spot development and weak
separation between the leader and trailer spots was noted in the
intermediate portion of Region 1981 (S07E27, Dai/beta). Gradual decay
was noted in Region 1985 (N08W53, Cso/beta). New Region 1986 ((N13E62,
Hsx/alpha) was numbered during the period, but was stable and inactive
throughout.

A 12-degree filament, centered near S34E02, erupted during 19/1434 -
1555 UTC; associated with a southward, non-Earth-directed coronal mass
ejection (CME). An additional filament was seen departing the northern
portion of the solar disk during approximately 20/0129 - 0744 UTC. All
indications show this CME is directed too far north to have impacts at
Earth. A fast moving coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the M3
flare was first seen in Lasco C2 imagery at 20/0800 UTC. An Enlil run
will be submitted to determine potential speed and impacts to Earth, but
initial indications point to an approximate arrival time at Earth late
on Feb 22.


.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels for the period (Feb
20 - 22), with a chance for an M-class flare (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)).


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit exceeded the 10 pfu (S1-Minor) alert threshold, reaching a peak of
22 pfu at 20/0925 UTC. The M3 flare referenced above appeared to be the
source for this proton flux enhancement.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
ACE data began the period with enhanced levels due to the earlier
arrival of a CME, likely associated with a faint full-halo CME on Feb
16. Conditions then stabilized for several hours until approximately
20/0301 UTC when a shock was observed at ACE, sending IMF Bt to 9 nT and
Bz to -9 nT. Winds also increased from 461 km/s to 660 km/s with
temperature and density seeing increases as well. Since the shock
arrival, wind speeds have been observed as high as 734 km/s, IMF Bt has
remained between 10 nT and 15 nT, and the Bz component has mostly been
negative with occasional periods in the positive sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind conditions are expected to gradually recover from this latest
CME during the latter half of Feb 20. Another CME passage is forecast to
begin late on Feb 20 (from the halo CME observed on Feb 18). Wind speed
is expected to be above 500 km/s with this CME passage (based on the
latest Enlil model output), along with increased IMF Bt and IMF Bz
variability. CME effects are expected to persist during Feb 21, then
possibly see another enhancement during Feb 22 from yet another CME.
This one from the M3/Sn flare that occurred today. Analysis is ongoing
to determine exact timing of the arrival of a couple of CMEs observed
today and adjustments will be made accordingly.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to major storm levels (G2-Moderate)
due to another CME passage.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at major storm levels (G2 -
Moderate) for the next few hours as CME effects continue. Eventually,
field activity is expected to decrease to unsettled to active levels,
with a chance for minor storm (G1 - Minor) mid to late on Feb 20,
continuing into Feb 21 due to an expected CME passage. Activity is
expected to decrease to quiet levels late on Feb 21 as CME effects
subside. Unsettled to active levels with a chance for minor storm (G1 -
Minor) conditions are expected to persist through midday on Feb 22 with
the possibility of yet another CME passage, this one from the M3 flare
earlier today.

--
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2014 Feb 21 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
...

.Forecast...
Field activity is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels (G1
(Minor)) during Feb 21 due to an expected CME passage. Activity is
expected to decrease to quiet to active levels (less than G1) on Feb 22.
Today's CMEs are expected to arrive (simultaneously) at Earth late on
Feb 22. Quiet to active conditions are expected to persist on Feb 23 due
to this anticipated CME passage.
--
Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2014 Feb 21 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 21-Feb 23 2014 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 21-Feb 23 2014

            Feb 21     Feb 22     Feb 23
00-03UT        4          3          3     
03-06UT        5 (G1)     4          4     
06-09UT        4          3          3     
09-12UT        4          3          3     
12-15UT        3          2          3     
15-18UT        2          2          2     
18-21UT        2          2          2     
21-00UT        2          2          1     

Rationale: Field activity is expected to be at quiet to minor storm
levels (G1-minor) during Feb 21 due to an expected CME passage. Activity
is expected to decrease to quiet to active levels (less than G1) on Feb
22. Quiet to active conditions are expected to persist on Feb 23 due to
the anticipated arrival of two separate glancing-blow CME passages from
20 Feb CME activity.

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